Tag Archives: reserve variability

Solvency II’s one-year time horizon: A refined approach for non-life risk margins

Under Solvency II, reserving risk takes on a different meaning, based on the change in the estimated ultimate loss over a one-year time horizon, which accounts for the payments during the one-year time horizon and the consequences for future payments (i.e., the change in reserves) after the one-year time horizon. A number of models—most notably those developed by Mack in 1993 and later refined by Merz and Wüthrich—have provided insurers well thought out and documented approaches for determining reserve variability and estimating unpaid claims on an ultimate time horizon and one-year time horizon, respectively. This article by Milliman consultant Mark Shapland offers perspective.

This article was originally published in The European Actuary, November 2019.

A quantum leap in benchmarking P&C unpaid claims

The ability to benchmark an entity’s results against others in the industry and the industry as a whole can provide significant insights into both actuaries’ daily work and their strategic planning. Using the most advanced benchmarks available can help to ensure a more efficient integration of reserve variability analysis into enterprise risk management processes and enhance an entity’s strategies. Milliman consultant Mark Shapland offers some perspective in this article.

The article was originally published in the March/April 2018 issue of Contingencies.

The actuary and enterprise risk management: Integrating reserve variability

The first step in managing reserve risk is measuring that risk. Risk management is linked to risk monitoring, measurement, and reporting. The quality of measurement and reporting often determines to what extent monitoring is possible.

Routinely assessing reserve variability, as part of the regular reserve analysis process, can greatly benefit the risk management process. Integrating elements of reserve risk measurement within a continuously monitored enterprise risk management (ERM) framework can offer a number of advantages to your organization, including, but not limited to:

1. Ensuring that reserving assumptions are tracked and validated over time and that changes in those assumptions are justified relative to performance.

2. Formalizing the governance around the process (i.e., clear assignment of risk ownership and consistent, accurate, and auditable controlling of deterministic methods, stochastic models, and actuarial methodology, etc.).

3. Providing a framework that allows actuarial resources to assess the effectiveness of the distributions of possible outcomes resulting from the reserve variability analyses (e.g., approximately 10% of observations as of each valuation date should fall within the highest and lowest 5% of the distribution of possible outcomes).

4. Providing a framework that includes an early warning system that translates actual outcomes of paid and outstanding loss into likely reserve estimate changes prior to any analysis.

5. Enabling management to use key performance indicators (KPIs) to anticipate the results of future actuarial analyses and better understand and assess how prior assumptions have held up.

6. Providing a framework that allows both managers to efficiently allocate actuarial resources (e.g., assigning the most experienced resources to the most challenging segments) and actuarial resources to hypothesize whether deviations are the result of a mean estimation error, a variance estimation error, or a random error.

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Risk management frontiers: The quest for more reserve information

Insurance risk managers and other corporate decision makers are about to discover a new frontier of reserving information. This frontier marks the increasingly dynamic boundary between risk and reserves, and those who learn to master it will find new ways to improve upon yesterday’s results.

A recent article for Risk Management Magazine by Milliman consultant Mark Shapland takes the measure of the new frontier. Read the full article here.