Milliman today announced the findings of its annual study on reported year-end 2019 embedded value (EV) and value of new business (VNB) results for 53 major multinational and domestic life insurers across Asia. The Milliman 2019 Embedded Value Results: Asia report highlights trends in published EV results, including a total growth in reported EV in 2019 of 11.1% to USD 816 billion but a VNB fall of 3.6% to USD 51.1 billion. The report also provides an in-depth analysis of the EV methodologies and assumptions adopted, as well as the impact of key regulations and other market developments in the region.
“All of Asia’s markets, apart from Japan, reported positive growth in EV results for the year.” said Milliman Principal and Consulting Actuary Paul Sinnott. “VNB results were more mixed, with some markets being adversely affected by record low interest rates and reduced sales volumes. It is important to recognise that the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are yet to be felt in these results, however, as most Asian markets have a 31 December financial year-end.”
A complimentary copy of the report is available for download here.
A few key insights from the report include:
- The China and Hong Kong markets led EV growth, posting increases of 20% and 19% respectively. Several other markets also reported double-digit growth in EV.
- China Life continues to report the largest EV among insurers across Asia. Among multinationals, AIA continues to be the largest insurer in Asia, both by EV and VNB.
- Strategic shifts towards selling more protection business continue, as interest rates fall throughout the region, making traditional savings-oriented business less profitable.
- Risk Based Capital regulations continue to evolve across Asia and will have an impact on EV and VNB in the longer term.
- Traditional Embedded Value methodologies continue to be most popular in the region, with Market Consistent EV/VNB reporting being prevalent in Japan and India, as well as in European insurers’ Asian subsidiaries.
- The 2019 EV results act as a useful starting point for analysing the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, which will be partially reflected in insurers’ H1 2020 EV disclosures and are expected to show up to a greater extent in the 2020 year-end EV results.
International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS) 17 embraces a marketing value accounting concept under which insurance contract liabilities are constantly updated to reflect environments at the reporting date. It also has a deferral accounting aspect. These features are anticipated to replace the roles that embedded value (EV) disclosure has been taking. However, as the insurance contract valuation by IFRS 17 is very complex, simpler market value accounting approaches like EV disclosure will be still more useful in some situations. This paper by Milliman consultant Takanori Hoshino compares the valuation approaches between IFRS 17 and EV and infers a potential future of EV disclosure.
Milliman today announced the findings of its study on reported year-end 2017 embedded value (EV)/value of new business (VNB) results for 31 major insurance companies operating in Asia, excluding Japan. The report highlights trends in published EV results, including a total growth in reported EV in 2017 of 19.2%, and similarly a 19.1% growth in value of new business (VNB).
Beyond EV results, the Milliman 2017 Embedded Value Results: Asia (excl. Japan) report analyses and discusses the EV methodologies and assumptions and the impact of regulations, as well as recent developments with International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS) 17 as it gains momentum in the region.
‘China’s clampdown on high guarantee universal life sales reduced premium volumes but had little effect on EV and VNB results due to profitability of this line of business typically being very low or even negative,’ said Milliman principal and consulting actuary Paul Sinnott. ‘Overall, those insurers that successfully reoriented their product strategies from savings to protection business seem to have performed best.’
A few key insights from the Asian report include:
• EV growth across Asia ranged from 10% to 28%, with 2017’s total reported Asian EV increasing by 19.2% on a comparable basis to USD 480 billion, up from USD 403 billion in 2016.
• South Korea, citing profitable new business, efficiencies gains, and a change in investment assumptions, reported the highest comparable EV growth, at 22%, with Hong Kong and China reporting the next-highest total EV growth, at 21%.
• Life insurance sales decreased slightly overall, with gross written premium (GWP) estimated to have reduced by 4%. This was largely due to China’s USD 32 million decrease in GWP, mainly as a result of the restrictions imposed on the sales of universal life business.
• The value of in-force (VIF) increased for all markets. South Korea recorded the largest VIF growth of 103%, mainly as a result of increased investment return assumptions reflecting the yield curve rise last year. Hong Kong also posted a strong VIF growth of 20%, largely driven by high volumes of new business from mainland Chinese visitors.
A copy of the report detailing these and other pertinent trends is available for download at Milliman.com.
Milliman has released its latest report, 2017 Mid-Year Embedded Value Results (excl. Japan), which summarises mid-year 2017 embedded value (EV) results disclosed by Asian insurers in eight key countries. The report examines the results at a company and country level and supplements the 2016 Embedded Value Results: Asia (excl. Japan) report released in August 2017. It also includes an update of the India 2016 full-year results, not available earlier due to the market’s March financial year-end. The findings highlight an overall increase in growth of EV, increase in value of new business (VNB) and improvement in new business margins.
‘As expected, positive performances by Asian equity markets and improving yields have led to an increase in the EV of life insurers within the region,’ said Milliman principal and consulting actuary Paul Sinnott. ‘These favourable economic conditions, combined with refined product strategies and improved distribution channel productivity, continue to drive growth in life insurance premiums, margins and the overall business in Asia.’
Key findings from the report include:
• Overall, insurers have reported positive gains in their 2017 mid-year embedded values over their 2016 mid-year values, with many companies showing single-digit EV growth but some posting larger gains in Hong Kong and mainland China.
• Hong Kong and mainland China insurers continued to report significant increases in VNB in the first half of 2017 compared to the first half of 2016, with over 50% increases in VNB for several companies, primarily driven by strong new business sales.
• Nearly all operating entities reported an increase in their new business margins between the first half of 2016 and the first half of 2017, with single- or double-digit increases in new business margins for many.
• As initial public offering (IPO) activity among insurers continues in India, companies are adopting the market-consistent Indian Embedded Value methodology (which is prescribed for IPO disclosures).
A copy of the report is available for download here.
Milliman has announced the findings of its study on reported year-end 2016 embedded value (EV) results for 34 major insurance companies operating in Asia, excluding Japan. The report highlights trends among companies reporting EVs and reveals a growth in reported 2016 EV of 15.3% by Asian insurance companies. This was primarily driven by a 40% growth over 2015 in value of new business (VNB) across the region in 2016.
The Milliman 2016 Embedded Value Results: Asia (excl. Japan) report analyses and discusses the EV methodologies and assumptions with the impact of regulations, as well as recent developments in the long-awaited International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS) 17 reporting regime.
‘The China and Hong Kong markets were the main drivers of the VNB explosion in the region; both having mainland consumers to thank for these results,’ said Milliman principal and consulting actuary Paul Sinnott. ‘Although we have some longer-term concerns about the sustainability of profit margins in the region, recent yield curve rises are relieving some margin pressure in the short term.’
A few key insights from the Asian report include:
• In 2016, total reported Asian EV grew by 15.3%, on a comparable basis, to USD 339 billion from USD 294 billion.
• While some European multinationals reduced their Asian EV reporting last year, there were three companies disclosing EV results for the first time in India, along with the first comprehensive Indian Embedded Value (IEV) disclosure associated with ICICI Prudential’s initial public offering (IPO) in September 2016.
• Life insurance sales continued to rise strongly in the region during 2016. Gross written premium (GWP) is estimated to have increased by 28%, with China’s 43% growth being a major contributor.
• Value of in-force (VIF) increased for all markets. South Korea recorded the largest VIF growth of 31%, mainly from margin-driven growth in VNB across all companies; Hong Kong also posted strong VIF growth of 20%, driven by large volumes of business sold to mainland Chinese visitors.
To download the report, click here.
Milliman has announced the availability of a new report detailing embedded value (EV) results for 19 major insurance companies in Europe. The report examines trends among the companies reporting EVs as of year-end 2016, comparing practices adopted and discussing reporting issues following the implementation of Solvency II in Europe and the move toward the global adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS).
“The future of embedded value reporting in Europe remains uncertain—although there has been increased alignment between EV and Solvency II reporting, we have continued to witness a gradual reduction in the number of firms reporting on an EV basis,” said Philip Simpson, a principal and consulting actuary in Milliman’s London office. “And with Solvency II disclosures via the SFCR lacking information around new business or analysis of change, for example, there is potentially a void appearing in the level of granularity of financial information reported.”
The release of the final IFRS 17 standard in May 2017 could signal an alternative reference point for Market Consistent Embedded Value (MCEV). And with substantial disclosure requirements involved, this may allow a sufficient amount of information to be obtained about the profitability of the business. However, the preparation of accounts under IFRS 17 gives rise to a different interpretation and timing of profit and loss compared with an EV basis, which will need to be considered. Ultimately time will tell whether companies use Solvency II or IFRS 17 as the reference point for MCEV.
Key insights from the European report include:
• There has been an ongoing, though moderate, reduction in firms reporting on an embedded value basis in 2016 compared with 2015.
• An amendment to the European Insurance CFO Forum Market Consistent Embedded Value Principles© (the MCEV Principles) was issued in May 2016, which permits the use of the projection methods and assumptions for market-consistent solvency regimes (e.g., Solvency II) in EV reporting. In light of this, during 2016 companies continued to change their approaches, with a continued trend to align EV and Solvency II reporting.
• The CFO Forum members (that disclosed their embedded values at the end of 2016) reported a combined embedded value of GBP 263 billion (EUR 308 billion) at the end of 2016 compared with GBP 246 billion (EUR 288 billion) at the end of 2015. Experience amongst the companies studied was mixed, with around half of companies experiencing an increase in embedded value compared with 2015.
• Overall, results for new business were fairly positive for the majority of companies in the report. The total value of new business (VNB) written by the current CFO Forum members (that disclosed their values of new business at the end of 2016) was GBP 11.3 billion (EUR 13.3 billion) in 2016, compared like-for-like with GBP 10.1 billion (EUR 11.9 billion) in 2015.
To download the report, click here.