Tag Archives: David Evans

Report quantifies flood risk for residential properties in the U.S.

Despite recent efforts to reform the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), most U.S. homeowners do not carry insurance to protect their properties against the risk of flooding. For most homeowners, the purchase of this coverage is mandatory only if they live in certain specified high-risk areas. However, significant risk exists in areas where the purchase of flood insurance is rare. Even in areas where flood coverage is required, data from the NFIP and private flood insurers do not indicate high degrees of coverage. 

Beyond direct damages to property and communities, the flood insurance protection gap could have many downstream financial impacts. Homeowners insurance is integral to protecting the collateral that underpins the U.S. mortgage system. As a result, coverage gaps could create adverse financial exposure to bearers of mortgage risk including mortgagees, insurers, reinsurers, federal underwriting agencies, and bondholders. 

In a new Society of Actuaries report, professionals from Milliman and catastrophe modeling firm KatRisk examine the countrywide residential exposure to flooding and downstream implications including its impact on mortgage default risk. They also consider how flooding may be affected by rising sea levels and evaluate how it could affect the financial health of residential householders.

CAT models could help insurers provide policies to more Californians

As a new wildfire season in California is ablaze, answers to questions about insurers’ pricing, underwriting, and exposure management functions resulting from the 2017 and 2018 seasons are still taking shape. According to Milliman estimates, the 2017 wildfire season alone wiped out just over 10 years of underwriting profits for California homeowners insurers. Moreover, the combined 2017 and 2018 wildfire seasons wiped out about twice the combined underwriting profits for the past 26 years, leaving the insurance industry with an aggregate underwriting loss of over $10 billion for the California homeowners line of business since 1991.

A historically profitable line of business has recently become an unprofitable line exposed to a severe peril that is neither easily measured nor fully understood. As a result, wildfire risk has become a key focus of Californians, and their property insurers.

Catastrophe simulation models, or “CAT models,” have been developed for a variety of catastrophic perils, such as hurricanes, floods, winter storms, earthquakes, and wildfires, to provide insurers with scientific techniques to quantify and assess their exposure to catastrophic risk. Recognizing the growing importance of this peril, a number of firms have been working to apply the latest techniques in catastrophe modeling to wildfires.

In their article “Wildfire catastrophe models could spark the changes California needs,” Milliman’s Eric Xu, Cody Webb, and David D. Evans explain how enhanced quantification and understanding of wildfire risk represents one of the most important challenges for property insurers writing business in the Western United States, and how innovations in the field of catastrophe modeling may assist them with this task. 

From nothing to something—the U.S. private flood insurance market thrives

Flood was a peril once thought to be uninsurable by the private insurance market. Today, the sector is poised to grow rapidly. Milliman consultants Nancy Watkins and Dave Evans are optimistic that private insurers will significantly close the U.S. flood “protection gap” in a few years by routinely offering flood coverage alongside most homeowners policies. In a recent Carrier Management article they authored, the consultants discussed trends in the private flood market leading to this prediction, and outlined several obstacles the market will need to overcome along the way.

To learn more about what flood insurance for U.S. homeowners could look like in a couple of decades, listen to the Critical Point episode entitled “The future of flood insurance.”

How many Californian homeowners lack earthquake coverage? (infographic)

When a 6.4 moment magnitude (Mw) earthquake struck Ridgecrest, California, in early July, followed closely by a 7.1 Mw event, many in the state worried it was the “Big One.” But while it was the most powerful California earthquake since 1999, and only the fourth exceeding 7 Mw in the past 40 years in California, Ridgecrest occurred in sparsely populated Kern County and won’t rival the state’s most destructive earthquakes.

As Milliman actuaries David Evans, Eric Xu, and Cody Webb write in their recent article, while not the “Big One,” the Ridgecrest event may prompt Californians to consider their exposure to this peril. Coverage for earthquakes isn’t provided by homeowners policies in California and insurance participation across the state is low, especially in some of the state’s riskiest areas—as this infographic depicts.

Are California residents ready for earthquakes?

On July 4, a 6.4 moment magnitude (Mw) earthquake struck Ridgecrest, California. It was followed closely by a 7.1 Mw event and over 8,900 aftershocks as of July 12. This earthquake was the most powerful earthquake in California since 1999, and was only the fourth exceeding 7 Mw in the past 40 years in California. Based on early estimates, expected economic damages from Ridgecrest are at least $1 billion.

Earthquake kits and structural retrofits provide invaluable protection to Californians, but there’s another that most lack—insurance. Coverage for earthquakes isn’t provided by homeowners policies in California, and the lack of it poses a risk to the largest assets of many state residents: their homes. Only 10% of residential units in the state have earthquake insurance, despite the fact that many residents live in areas with earthquake risk higher than the Ridgecrest area.

To learn more about earthquake insurance in California and the susceptibility of residents to earthquake, see this article by Milliman’s David Evans, Eric Xu, and Cody Webb.