Tag Archives: Aisling Barrett

Overview of EIOPA’s 2020 Solvency II review consultation

The European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA) recently published its second wave of consultation regarding the 2020 Solvency II review. The deadline for feedback is 15 January 2020 and the deadline for those participating in the information request is 6 December 2019. This briefing note by Milliman consultants Aisling Barrett and Eoin King summarises EIOPA’s proposals.

Using predictive modelling in assumption setting

Milliman is carrying out a series of policyholder behaviour experience studies using predictive analytics. This blog post discusses the most recent US-based study looking at Guaranteed Lifetime Withdrawal Benefit (GLWB) utilisation, which, along with lapse, is a key driver of variable annuity (VA) business value.

The study was based on a data set containing around 2 million unique VA policies issued between 2003 and 2015 of seven large variable annuity writers based in the US. These policies represent roughly $220 billion of account value (based on initial purchase amounts) and cover a range of GLWB product designs as well as demographic attributes. This provides a rich data set with which to study policyholder behaviour.

A predictive model can be constructed with common variables such as age, tax-qualified status and single/joint status to allow easy implementation. The models constructed for our study use drivers that are readily available in a typical in-force data file, making them suitable for implementation in existing actuarial projection platforms. Including additional explanatory variables or interactions to the assumption formula is a natural step of predictive modelling because many variables can be captured in a single model without double-counting the individual variables’ effects. This framework allows iterative improvements to predictions and better differentiation of policyholder behaviour at a seriatim level.

The 2016 Milliman VALUES™ GLWB Utilisation study examined both when the policyholders chose to begin taking lifetime withdrawals, as well as how efficiently they continued to take them thereafter. We were able to confirm and, more importantly, quantify many intuitive assumptions about these behaviours and what drives them, and discovered new insights as well. For example, less than half of all policyholders currently taking GLWB withdrawals utilise their GLWB benefit with 100% efficiency (i.e., taking precisely the maximum allowed withdrawal amount). This is interesting as we believe many companies price on a basis of 100% efficiency.

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Central Bank of Ireland review of Solvency II life insurance pricing and reserving assumptions

In February 2017, the Central Bank of Ireland published letters on its website relating to its review of the consistency of Solvency II life insurance pricing and reserving assumptions. This briefing note by Milliman’s Aisling Barrett and Sinéad Clarke summarises the contents of these letters. The authors also reference the contents of the December 2016 industry letter on the standard formula Solvency Capital Requirement.





EIOPA discussion paper on the review of Solvency II Delegated Regulation

The European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA) has launched a review of specific items in the Solvency II Delegated Regulation with a particular focus on the standard formula Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR). In this briefing note, Milliman consultants Aisling Barrett, Gillian Tucker, and John Mulvihill summarise the discussion paper EIOPA has published in order to engage with stakeholders on the topic.





Solvency II Directors’ Certifications

The Central Bank of Ireland has published a guideline and a set of frequently asked questions for insurance and reinsurance undertakings on Solvency II Directors’ Certifications. In this briefing note, Milliman’s Aisling Barrett and Ciarain Kelly explain what certifications are required from directors of insurance and reinsurance undertakings under Solvency II and how Milliman can help give comfort to directors in preparing to sign these declarations.