How will COVID-19 affect Dutch mortality tables?

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected mortality in different ways. In the first half of 2020, many people died because of the illness. However, the number of deaths due to, for example, car accidents decreased as a result of the lockdown.

There continues to be a lot of uncertainty about the duration of the pandemic. How long it lasts depends on how the virus evolves, whether a working vaccine is invented, and whether the vaccine works in the long term. Because of these uncertainties, there are questions about how future mortality projections and future cash flow projections will emerge.

In this article, Milliman’s Lotte van Delft and Sarah Huijzer analyse multiple scenarios of the possible effects of COVID-19 on future mortality tables in the Netherlands.